El Podcast

E161: From Rome to Right Now: What History Gets Wrong About Collapse - Dr. Luke Kemp

Episode Summary

Dr. Luke Kemp, an existential risk researcher at Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, unpacks how wealth concentration, arms races, and surveillance make societies fragile—through the lens of his new book, Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse. We dive into the book’s case studies and prescriptions, from curbing plutocracy to regulating AI and nukes, outlining practical, democratic reforms to steer toward a safer, freer future.re.

Episode Notes

Dr. Luke Kemp, an Existential Risk Researcher at the University of Cambridge shows how today’s plutocracy and tech-fueled surveillance imperil society—and what we can do to build resilience.

Guest bio:
Dr. Luke Kemp is an Existential Risk Researcher at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge and author of Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse. His work examines how wealth concentration, surveillance, and arms races erode democracy and heighten global catastrophic risk.

Topics discussed:

• The “Goliath” concept: dominance hierarchies vs. vague “civilization”
• Are we collapsing now? Signals vs. sudden shocks
• Inequality as the engine of fragility; lootable resources & data
• Tech’s role: AI as accelerant, surveillance capitalism, autonomous weapons
• Nuclear risk, climate links, and system-level causes of catastrophe
• Democracy’s erosion and alternatives (sortition, deliberation)
• Elite overproduction, factionalism, and arms/resource/status “races”
• Collapse as leveler: winners, losers, and myths about mass die-off
• Practical pathways: leveling power, wealth taxes, open democracy

Main points:

• “Civilization” consistently manifests as stacked dominance hierarchies—what Kemp calls the Goliath—which naturally concentrate wealth and power over time.
• Rising inequality spills into political, informational, and coercive power, making societies brittle and less able to correct course.
• Existential threats are interconnected; AI, nukes, climate, and bio risks share causes and amplify each other.
• AI need not be Skynet to be dangerous; it speeds arms races, surveillance, and catastrophic decision cycles.
• Collapse isn’t always apocalypse; often it fragments power and improves life for many outside the elite core.
• Durable safety requires leveling power: progressive/wealth taxation, stronger democracy (especially sortition-based, deliberative bodies), and curbing surveillance and arms races.

Top 3 quotes:

• “Most collapse theories trace back to one driver: the steady concentration of wealth and power that makes societies top-heavy and blind.”
• “AI is an accelerant—pouring fuel on the fires of arms races, surveillance, and extractive economics.”
• “If we want a long future, we don’t just need tech fixes—we need to level power and make democracy real.”